Gold Price Analysis Today (July 17, 2025): When the Market "Holds Its Breath" Waiting for Fed Data

Hello fellow traders! Today, July 17, 2025, I've been watching the gold market since 5 AM and noticed something interesting - gold prices are "standing still" in a rather suspicious way. From my experience with Al Brooks' teachings on Price Action, these periods of sideways movement usually signal a major breakout ahead.

Today I'll share a detailed analysis of gold price movements and the key signals that we need to watch closely.

Gold Price Movements on July 17, 2025

International Market: Notable Consolidation

Gold rose to 3,361.91 USD/t.oz on July 16, 2025, up 1.11% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has fallen 0.75%, but it is still 36.59% higher than a year ago, maintaining levels at the highest point in three weeks. From a Price Action perspective, this is a classic trading range - what Bob Volman calls a "coiling pattern" in his book "Understanding Price Action."

I've observed:

• Trading volume has been declining over the past 3 sessions
• Price volatility has narrowed from $25 to just $16
• Daily bars are getting smaller - a sign of waiting

Domestic Market: Pressure from Price Differential

Gold SJC prices domestically are commonly around 120.0-121.2 million VND/tael, close to new historical peaks. The differential with international prices is approximately 14-15 million VND/tael - a "massive" figure that I rarely see.

This reminds me of the lesson from the 2008 crisis: when price differentials become too large, the market will find its own way to "adjust."

Major Factors Impacting Gold Prices Today

US Economic Data: The "Double-Edged Sword"

This week brings three crucial numbers from the US: CPI, PPI, and retail sales. From my experience analyzing central bank behavior, these are data points that can "turn around" the entire market.

If US inflation doesn't spike suddenly, gold will maintain its upward trend. But if there's a positive surprise, we might see a strong selloff.

Fed Policy: The "Psychology Game"

The market is consolidating within the $3,248.27–$3,451.11 range, and the price could move in either direction. The market is currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the August meeting. From a Price Action perspective, this information has been "absorbed" into the price - no longer a surprise factor.

But statements from Fed officials are what we need to watch. I still remember Al Brooks' words: "Market reacts to surprises, not to expected events."

Geopolitical Risks: "Safe Haven Demand"

US-EU trade tensions, conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine situation... all create "safe haven flows" into gold. This is a long-term price support factor that I always monitor.

Detailed Technical Analysis

Price Action Analysis Following Al Brooks' Method

Looking at the H4 chart, I see:

Market structure: Gold is in a trading range with:

• Resistance: 3,370-3,375 USD/ounce
• Support: 3,340-3,345 USD/ounce
• Midpoint: 3,357 USD/ounce

Bar analysis:

• The past 3 sessions have all been "inside bars" - a sign the market is "coiling up"
• Declining volume shows traders' indecision
• Small bar bodies compared to shadows - uncertainty pattern

Indicators and Signals