Robusta Coffee Prices Plummet 2025: Challenge or Opportunity for Vietnamese Farmers?

Minh, a coffee farmer in Dak Lak, just finished harvesting his main crop amid a brutal week that saw global Robusta coffee prices crash over 3%—from $3,427 to $3,312 per ton on the London ICE exchange. "This year's yield was good, but at these prices, it's barely enough to keep the family afloat," he shares with a heavy sigh.

Minh's story is playing out across Vietnam's coffee-growing regions as domestic purchase prices also plummeted 500 dong per kilogram to 121,000-122,000 dong/kg. What does such a sharp decline signal? Is this a crisis or an opportunity to restructure Vietnam's coffee industry?

Why the "Black Gold" Lost Its Shine So Suddenly

According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) dated July 15, 2025, the market is under pressure from multiple fronts. First, weather conditions in Brazil—the world's largest coffee producer—have improved significantly according to Safras & Mercado reports, easing fears of supply shortages that had worried the market since early this year. Robusta inventories in London have surged to 5,737 lots—the highest level in 10 months.

Second, consumption demand in major markets like Europe and North America is slowing. According to June 2025 data from Euromonitor, European coffee consumption dropped 2.5% compared to the same period last year as consumers tighten spending amid inflationary pressures.

Particularly noteworthy, US-Brazil trade tensions with the US threatening import tariffs on Brazilian coffee also add another variable to the market, opening opportunities for Vietnamese coffee to penetrate deeper into the US market.

Vietnam - The "Robusta King" Faces Challenges

Controlling 40% of global Robusta production and contributing 18% of total agricultural export revenue, Vietnam is the country most directly impacted by this price shock.

Ms. Lan, a trader in Buon Ma Thuot, noted: "Since early this week, the volume of coffee brought to market has dropped significantly. Farmers are 'swallowing bitter pills' waiting for prices to recover." With the 500 dong/kg decrease, an average farming household with 2 hectares of coffee will lose about 15-20 million dong in revenue compared to last week.

Positive Signals Amid the Price "Storm"